"Lock them up" is reactionary demagogy

In 1993, then leading Tory Michael Howard declared "prison works", as part of a "lock them up" response to crime in the UK which paralleled the huge expansion of the prison population in the USA at the time.

His mindset is still around, in outraged reactions (and not only from Tories) to the government's early-release scheme.

Crimes exist. People do terrible things to each other. Modern capitalist society does not have the "remedies" which older societies had – expulsion from the hunter-gatherer band, family-revenge customs, physical mutilations often for minor offences, exile to remote areas, vast use of death penalties. (In 1800 England had over 200 offences carrying the death penalty). We may not in the near future find better than some use of some form of prison for some people who do crimes.

But now, in over 100 countries prisons exceed their maximum occupancy rates, and in eleven, over double. Overcrowding is the direct result of government policy decisions. And it has come at a time of generally falling crime rates (and as much in countries like the Netherlands with much lower rates of jailing as in the UK).

England has longer prison sentences than almost all other European countries, and that is getting worse: the average custodial sentence for indictable offences has increased from 16 months in 1993 to 22.5 months by June 2024.

For sure overcrowded prisons and longer sentences don't "work". Overcrowding increases the likelihood of reoffending, of offending whilst in custody, of serious violent disorder, of self-harm and suicide. It prevents rehabilitation and education programmes even being seriously attempted.

Meanwhile, many victims of crime receive nowhere near the level of support and action that they expect. Most crimes reported will be given an incident number with no follow up. Prosecutions for sexual assault have all but collapsed. Weekly, multiple police officers are investigated for a myriad of crimes.

Now some high-profile cases, such as the death of PC Harper, have been used demagogically as a tool against straightforward proposals to ease prison overcrowding, and they have pushed the government into a regressive partial climbdown.

Few serious offenders were going to be released earlier under the scheme. Those few early releases would be based on the length of the sentence already served and assessments of the likelihood of reoffending by experts who know the cases rather than by social-media demagogues who don't.

Notionally most people believe in the rehabilitation of offenders: that people who do terrible things can be helped to rebalance themselves. The media frenzy around this would suggest any such belief is so frail as to be overwhelmed at any time by "lock them up" panic.

The early-release law already had some exclusions, which will continue, of “serious and dangerous offenders” and “rape and child sexual offences”. Those conviced of those offences are to be subject to further surveillance and monitoring should they become eligible for release. The law provided for spending to improve victim support.

The number of people held in prison has increased 94% since 1990 and is at around 86,000 people. Almost 75% of all prisons in England and Wales are overcrowded. The Ministry of Justice acknowledges that many are crammed into cells that are unfit for human habitation, and in some cases locked up for 23 hours a day.

A report from the Howard League highlights the numbers of cells being signed off as adequate when there is no possibility that they are. The government has walked back from commitments to make prisons "fire safe" by 2027, with tens of thousands of people locked up in unlawful conditions. 60 prisons await urgent repair. 15 of those have had serious and fatal fires in the last 15 years.

The prisons minister, Lord Timpson, resigned in July. He was then, with two years in post, the longest serving prisons minister in 15 years. Timpson had caused some uproar around the time he was appointed by suggesting that around two-thirds of prisoners should not be locked up.

Timpson was right. A huge number of those in prison are held for minor offences, have had their sentences extended while in prison, or are "recalled" to jail without further trial after being dumped out on the street with little to no support.

In women’s prisons, more than 25% are remanded (held without having being convicted of any offence). 68% of those do not go on to receive custodial sentences. These periods of remand destroy lives and families: a majority of those jailed are primary care givers. 59% of women recalled to prison are held for 14 days or less.

Women are more likely to be released homeless, in addiction or with ongoing unaddressed mental health problems, and with inadequate support.

The majority of women in prison after conviction are held for property offences, shoplifting or TV Licence non-payment, and on short sentences. 70% of women in prison had experienced domestic abuse prior to offending, and over 80% suffer from mental health problems.

A big driver of custodial sentences is the privatisation of "community" sentencing provision. Magistrates and judges have lost confidence in the contractors who run those schemes. Community order sentences declined 61% between 2010 and 2024.

Homelessness, inadequate funding of refuge and support services, cuts to local authorities’ budgets, poor mental-health and SEND provision, all increase offending and re-offending.

Recall to jail after "early release" is rocketing. The latest data, for July to September 2024, show an increase of 39% on the previous year.

The "recall" population has more than doubled since 2010 now estimated to be well over 12 000. These "recalls" are generally not for new offences, but for minor issues with reporting, often made worse by huge barriers to prisoners finding homes and jobs.

The government has acknowledged the failures here, but found nothing to do about them.