Omicron: lessons from Denmark

Submitted by AWL on 8 February, 2022 - 5:13 Author: Martin Thomas
Queue in Denmark

Denmark dropped all its Covid curbs on 1 February. The move, by the country’s right-wing social-democratic minority government, is supported by most of Denmark’s other parties.

The official infectious-diseases agency has said: “mortality has followed a declining trend in all age groups as from Week 1 [of 2022] and is now approaching the normal level.

“This occurs even though the number of deaths in which the patient had a positive PCR test is increasing [i.e. more people dying of other causes have Covid too]...”

The prime minister says: “I dare not say that it is a final goodbye to restrictions... We do not know what will happen... A new variant might come along”. This is not a Bolsonaro-type policy.

As measured by excess deaths over two years, Denmark has the best Covid record in Europe, alongside Norway. It has shown about 1% excess deaths, and Britain 11%.

If hospitals are able to cope (unlike in Britain), there is no special virtue in curbs which delay Omicron infections bound to arrive soon-ish anyway.

There may even be an advantage in widening immunity fast through rapid mild infections.

Denmark’s Covid curbs have mostly been lighter than the UK. It started them some days earlier in March 2020, and eased them quicker (was the first country in Europe to reopen schools). It has a higher vax rate than Britain, but no vax mandate for health workers.

Until 1 February it required “Covid passports” (proof of vax, previous infection, or negative test) for entry to cafés, bars, etc.

A bigger factor in the less-bad outcome is probably that before February 2020 social provision in Denmark had survived neoliberalism better than in Britain.

It has higher, wider sick pay. It bans zero-hours contracts. Pensions and elderly care are better. Its Gini-coefficient measure of inequality is 0.25, and Britain’s is 0.35. Denmark scrapping curbs does not vindicate Tory policy in Britain, with our overstretched NHS and poor social provision. It points us to fighting for better sick pay, a boosted NHS and social care, workers’ control of workplace safety, and improved housing.

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