Not enough pressure for peace

Submitted by Anon on 7 April, 2007 - 11:13

by paddy dollard

The Arab League has offered to make peace with Israel on certain conditions, and Israel has responded with the proposal of a conference of Israel and the Arab states to discuss the Arab League proposal.

Does this give grounds for hope for progress towards peace and the setting-up of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel? Probably not.

The well-known cynical definition of diplomacy is that a diplomat is one who “lies abroad for his country”. Therefore you can’t judge anything by what the diplomats say.

With Israeli and Arab diplomats and governments talking about the Middle East, it is not just that you can't believe them, though you can't, but that both sides say things to impress the USA, and for that reason adopt postures that are not really theirs.

The Arab League, representing 21 Arab states, revived its proposal of five years ago to make peace in return for Israeli withdrawal from all territory occupied in the Six Day War 40 years ago, including Arab East Jerusalem, the setting up of a Palestinian state, and a "just solution to the problem of the Palestinian refugees".

In turn Israeli prime minister Olmert, at a press conference on 1 April, proposed a meeting between Israel, the Arab states, and the "Quartet" — the US, the UN, the European Union, and Russia — which proposed the still-born "roadmap for peace" in April 2003.

Saudi Arabia immediately rejected the proposal. Olmert had said that Israel did not accept all the Arab League proposals but was willing to discuss modifications. Saudi Arabia regarded the Arab League proposals as fixed, immutable — not a negotiating position, but an ultimatum. Not surprisingly the USA praised Olmert's offer.

For decades the Arab states' demand has been for the “"return of the refugees”, by which formula is meant the "return" to Israel of the 1948 Palestinian refugees — and all their descendants, numbering four and a half million. Like some other superficially "reasonable" proposals, in practice this is the proposal that Israel surrenders its identity as a Jewish national state. It is simply inconceivable that any Israeli government will ever agree to that.

The formulation in the Arab League proposal is for a "just solution" for the Palestinian refugees and their descendants. Five years ago, this was widely interpreted as meaning only the "return" of a smallish number of refugees and the payment of compensation.

That presupposes negotiations; otherwise it is an ultimatum. Now it is an ultimatum.

The Israeli government is a weak government. Olmert's public definition of Israel's position on the refugees - not one refugee will return! - may have been to placate worried Israelis, or it may have been to slam the door on even a token "return" such as was talked of five years ago.

Last July the Israeli government lost a great deal, not least the widespread belief that no Arab army could stand up to Israel, in its war in Lebanon with Hezbollah. The Israeli right, such as former prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu, openly talk about the need for another war to restore the prestige and reputation of the Israeli armed forces.

Without further radical shifts, the Israeli and Arab League declarations can not mean movement now. The fundamental prerequisite for a two-states peace deal is on the Israeli side: a strong Israeli government which either wants to make peace on the basis of an independent Palestinian state, or is being compelled by US, and secondarily EU, pressure to make such a peace.

On the Arab side, evidently, it requires a willingness to negotiate and not issue ultimatums dressed up as peace offers.

It remains true that any prospect for a stable peace in the region demands a settlement between Israel and the Palestinians. Tony Blair and the EU have been driven by this to seek a revival of the "roadmap". Maybe some of the Bush administration understand that, too.

But the signs are that the necessary will and determination by the big powers to compel Israel to settle with the Palestinians is not in existence yet.

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