Elections in the Republic of Ireland were held on Friday 26 February. With most of the votes now counted, it is clear that the electorate has passed a harsh judgement on the outgoing Fine Gael-Labour coalition, with the junior partner suffering a near meltdown. Labour has won just six seats — a massive drop from its previous 33.
The incumbent government came to power in 2011, three years into the economic crisis, and continued the work of its predecessors, implementing austerity under the supervision of the Troika (European Commission with the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund). Tax rises, cuts in services, and startling levels of emigration have done lasting damage to Ireland’s social fabric, and a wave of anger exploded in 2014 over the introduction of water-charges. It was for these reasons that Fine Gael’s (FG) slogan “Let’s Keep The Recovery Going” did not resonate with voters, and that Labour’s urban working-class vote has largely abandoned it in favour of Sinn Féin, the Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit (AAA-PBP) coalition or the recently-formed Social Democrats.
If Labour does not pick up another TD in the remaining counts, it will not be eligible for speaking rights in the new Dáil. Labour has learnt a harsh lesson on the fate of labour movement parties which enter government with the right-wing in order to manage capitalism. FG lost over 10% of its vote, though still remains the largest party with 25.5% and 47 seats at the time of writing.
One of the biggest surprises for most commentators was the resurrection of Fianna Fail (FF), presumed buried as recently as a year ago. The party came within a percentage point of FG and is not far behind it in seats. The chameleon-like populist nationalist party, with deep roots and strong local organisation, caught the public mood better with a call for “an Ireland for all”, and many voters who abandoned it in 2011 will have been seeking an excuse to return. Even so, the era of two-party politics is over. Between them FG and FF have the support of fewer than 50% of voters, with the rest of the electorate backing Sinn Féin (SF) (14% and 23 TDs), smaller parties to the left, or an eclectic variety of independents.
Though both FF and FG are on the centre-right of politics, a “grand coalition” is unlikely given the deep historical animus between the two parties. If not another election, more likely is a Fine Gael government, perhaps with independents, which Fianna Fail will provide with a confidence arrangement in return for concessions. The latter can then collapse it at a propitious medium-term moment. Another reason to rule out a FG-FF coalition is the rise of SF, who would be the main opposition party in such an outcome.
As Daniel Finn from the New Left Review has written, SF is is “a left-nationalist party that is more nationalist than left”, with an undemocratic internal culture, a recent history of screeching u-turns and a marked ideological pragmatism. SF is neither socialist nor consistently anti-austerity, but the rise in its support reflects a burning sense of anger at the political establishment.
To the left is the AAA-PBP, Formed to give electoral expression to the anti-water charges movement. It is an electoral coalition of the respective anti-austerity fronts run by the Socialist Party (SP) and Socialist Workers Party (SWP). It received 3.95% for its 31 candidates, so far winning five seats and overtaking Labour in Dublin. Though run by Trotskyist organisations, its platform was largely left-reformist. Nevertheless, the high profile of TDs such as the SP’s Paul Murphy, who put themselves at the forefront of the anti-water charges movement, means that the radical left will have strong representation in parliament with which to resist any incoming right-wing government. The next step should be to develop the AAA-PBP from a one-time electoral front into a more enduring and democratic revolutionary socialist project.
