After the death of Arafat

What will Sharon's next move be? Adam Keller of Gush Shalom and The Other Israel spoke to Workers' Liberty.

At first it seems he will thread carefully. Abu Mazen has a good standing in the White House and the Americans are interested in the success of the Palestinian elections (all the more because they will almost precisely coincide with the Iraqi elections in January, about whose veracity there will be obviously a lot of question marks internationally and in Iraq itself. So, Palestinian elections in the same month of which the Palestinians themselves feel are OK may (at least Bush may hope so) radiate some legitimacy on the Iraqi ones. So, I think Sharon will try to avoid any action which the US will interpret as direct sabotage of the elections or undermining Abu Mazen, such as a new invasion by force of the Gaza Strip (unless some militant group gives him a very clear-cut pretext, like the killing of two Israeli children by a Qassam rocket in late September which provided the legitimacy for invading Jabaliya refugee camp (and killing some 30 Palestinian children). In fact, it might be that even if there is some pretext of that magnitude, Bush would nevertheless tell him to restrain himself, and if Bush says it loud enough Sharon will. Still, the main strategic aim of Sharon remains to withdraw from the Gaza Strip and a token part of the West Bank, and halt there. And any negotiations would automatically put wider issues on the table, so he would try to perpetuate the "there is no partner" myth. If the Palestinian chosen leader is Abu Mazen, the line will probably be "Abu Mazen is well-meaning but weak, unable to fight terrorism, so he is no partner". If it is Marwan Bargouthi, the line would be "The Palestinians chose a terrorist to replace a terrorist, this shows we can't deal with them".

By the way, it is unlikely to be an Abu Mazen - Bargouthi contest in the general elections. Probably the contest will be for nomination of the Fatah candidate, and the loser in my view is unlikely to split the Fatah by standing against the winner. There is a room for compromise, since Abu Mazen in now PLO chairperson, while the electoral contest is for President of the Palestinian Authority. So in principle Abu Mazen could stay PLO chair while Bargouthi goes on to become president. Formally, the PLO chair stands higher, since the PLO represents the entire Palestinian people including refugees while the PA represents only the West Bank and Gaza Strip. But if the President has a fresh popular mandate while the chairperson has only the mandate of PLO organs which themselves were never elected and which were constituted a long time ago, of course it will make a difference. And if Bargouthi remains imprisoned for at least some time (it might take long to get Sharon to release him) it may create a situation similar to the ANC when Mandela was imprisoned, where Mandela was the charismatic prisoner and object of admiration while Oliver Tambo was free and running the organisation on the day to day basis. In my view this is the best solution which could give the Palestinians the advantage of both a leadership with a strong popular base and the access which Abu Mazen has to the Americans. But Abu Mazen and Bargouthi may think differently... Meanwhile, the question of what Arafat died of remains a potentially disruptive factor. Many Palestinian believe that Sharon poisoned him, and the fact that the medical file is kept secret. Some Palestinians say that if Israel killed him that excludes any possibility of a peace process or even cease-fire, which is natural enough.

As for Hamas - it seems that they will not field a presidential candidate against Abu Mazen of Bargouthi, which means that the one nominated by Fatah is sure to be elected. If the candidate is Abu Mazen, I think there will be a very low voter turnout, which will cast doubt on the legitimacy of the whole process. On the other hand if it is Bargouthi, and voting for him will seem a way to get him free and defy the occupation, I think there will be a very massive and enthusiastic voting. Just now the second channel Israeli TV gave an extensive coverage to the offices of the Free Bargouthi Committee in Ramallah, which exists already for more than a year but now seems about to become the electoral campaign HQ. His wife Fadawa, who is a lawyer and an activist, I think likes to emphasise the contrast between herself and Suha Arafat. By the way, Bargouthi speaks good Hebrew, and he speaks like an Israeli - which I suppose comes of learning the language from talking to prison guards rather than in a classroom. .

Hamas does want, however, to contest the parliamentary elections, which is a major change from the 1996 elections, when they boycotted the Palestinian Legislative Council on the grounds that it came out of Oslo and therefore was illegitimate. Last I heard there was a debate between Abu Mazen and Hamas because they want the parliamentary elections on the same day as the presidential while Abu Mazen wants them later, presumably because he wants first to establish his position as president and only later to contest with Hamas the parliament. I agree with Hamas on this case, I think that having the parliamentary elections on the same day would make for a very lively campaign and voter turnout because there would be many candidates in each constituency representing various local interests and issues as well as national ones, and each candidate will make considerable efforts to mobilise voters. That would be even more so if municipal elections are also held that day.

Who would the government want to take over the Gaza Strip? Officially it is left unclear, since the "disengagement" is supposed to be unilateral.

Unofficially they often talk of Muhammad Dahlan, who was the Palestinian Security Chief when Abu Mazen was Prime Minister, who has a power base in the Gaza Strip. This talk on the Israeli side has very much damaged Dahlan and made him perceived as a collaborator, so the government officials now try to downplay this idea. There had been also the idea of the Egyptians sending "advisers" to train the Palestinian security forces and at least some parts of the Israeli establishment would like it to go father than that and in fact go back to the pre-'67 situation of Egyptian rule, on the assumption that "the Palestinians have proven incapable of ruling themselves". But these ideas so far snagged on the problem that the Egyptians demand guarantees that after the withdrawal Israeli forces will not conduct ground raids or aerial bombardments in any area where Egyptian personnel will be stationed, and Sharon was so far unwilling to give such guarantees. There is also the idea running around of stationing international troops in the Strip, especially Europeans. Shlomo Ben Ami who was Barak's Foreign Minster is outspoken in favour of this idea, and there are rumours that Blair is interested in having British involvement.

But the present government seems opposed to the idea, since "it would hamper Israel's ability to fight terrorism" (i.e. conduct raids into the Strip after the withdrawal).

Now, about the main focus of our campaign. I suppose that in the near future we will be dealing very much with the various issues coming out of the Palestinian elections. In fact we have been trying over the past two years to call for Palestinian elections which require pulling the army out of the Palestinian cities. Until the death of Arafat nobody wanted to hear of it, we were totally unable to get it on the agenda. (For example, we met with Arafat and he told us that he wants to hold new elections. The papers did not publish it and instead published the commentaries of the pundits that Arafat the tyrant is stifling the desire of his people for democratic elections. The fact is, as long as Arafat was there the US was totally opposed to elections which would confirm Arafat in power. Now, the idea of elections in itself was accepted far more swiftly than we expected, and also the idea that the East Jerusalem Palestinians would be allowed to vote. But there is the major issue of the prisoners. That Bargouthi and the other prisoners should be released and allowed to take part is an idea so far totally unaccepted by Sharon (Interior Minster Poraz - politically a relative liberal but also extreme supporter of Thatcher-style free enterprise - expressed a moderate support for releasing Bargouthi). There is the related issue that the army should restore the Palestinian control of their cities, let the Palestinian security services carry arms and refrain from raiding the cities each night to arrest more Palestinians. These things were done during and in the immediate aftermath of the Arafat funeral (i.e. permission for Palestinian security to carry arms and no raids into the cities) but after three days they were rolled back. I have a feeling there was a power struggle inside the establishment and the hawks won at least for the time being.

For the slightly longer term, our big challenge is to make the Gaza withdrawal not The End as Sharon wants it but the beginning of total withdrawal from all the occupied territories.