A new ceasefire in Syria has been brokered jointly by the US and Russia.Unfortunately, this is unlikely to bring any lasting peace.
Initially set to hold for 48 hours from the evening of Monday 12 September, it may be extended. The terms are based on ngotiations at an international conference in February.The current agreement has been cautiously welcomed by sections of Syrian rebels, but they are highly critical of the lack of monitoring or safeguards. Many groups, including the Free Syrian Army (FSA) alliance, Ahrar al-Sham, and Jaish al-Islam have called the deal “unjust”, but stopped short of fully rejecting it.
Under the terms joint US-Russian action will be taken against Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, the one-time Al Qaeda affiliate. But Jabhat Fateh al-Sham’s break with Al Qaeda appears to have allowed them to gain a further foothold amongst the more moderate Islamist groups who continue to dominate the military and political opposition to Assad. One of the largest of these is Ahrar al-Sham, and they have increased their collaboration with Jabhat Fateh al-Sham.
Their spokesman Mostafa Mahamed wrote on Twitter that, “It’s simple — the Russian-American deal is intended to eliminate those who protect Syrians. “The negotiations and the deals which do not take account of fighters on the ground are useless.”When such groups claim to protect Syrians, they include only those Syrians who subscribe to their doctrine — a narrow Salafist interpretation of Islam.
However within many rebel held areas they are an increasingly dominant force, and for many Sunni Syrians they appear to be the only force capable of repelling gtovernment and Russian attacks. Calls by the US for Syrians to stop supporting these groups without any alternative source of protection from Assad is likely to be met with hostility.It looks as if the deal is almost solely targeted at Aleppo, with no guarantees or monitoring confirmed in any other areas.
Yet aid to be distributed in all besieged areas is vital to avoid further starvation. With no guarantee of this, a small lull in Russian-backed bombing will make only a small impact. If joint action by the US and Russia can now more legitimately target rebel-held areas on the grounds of removing groups both the US and Russia are hostile to, the deal could potentially allow the regime to consolidate its power-bases.
